In an extraordinary political milestone, ACT Labor has achieved its seventh consecutive term in government after 23 years in power. On Saturday night, Chief Minister Andrew Barr celebrated the victory with party faithful chanting “four more years.” This election marks a new chapter for the ACT Legislative Assembly, with two independents taking seats for the first time in over two decades. However, the final makeup of the Assembly remains uncertain, leaving the governing coalition’s composition still up in the air.
Independents Enter the Assembly Amid a Shifting Political Landscape
This year’s election delivered significant changes. Two independents, Fiona Carrick and Thomas Emerson, secured seats in Murrumbidgee and Kurrajong, reshaping the Assembly. Labor secured 10 seats, while the Canberra Liberals managed to claim 9, and the ACT Greens have seen their representation dwindle to just two seats.
Despite these new faces in the Assembly, the final picture isn’t entirely clear. A key seat in Brindabella remains undecided, with long-serving Labor cabinet minister Mick Gentleman’s future hanging in the balance. If Gentleman loses, the question of how the coalition government will form becomes even more crucial.
- Labor: 10 seats
- Liberals: 9 seats (as of projections)
- Greens: 2 seats
- Independents: 2 seats
The Greens Face an Uncertain Path Forward
The ACT Greens, who have played a crucial role in forming coalition governments over the years, now face a reduced presence. Andrew Braddock is projected to retain his seat in Yerrabi, but Emma Davidson and Rebecca Vassarotti—both sitting members and cabinet ministers—lost their positions to newcomers, reflecting a shift in voter sentiment.
ACT Greens leader Shane Rattenbury admitted the party faces a “dilemma” regarding whether to re-enter government or remain on the crossbench. With the number of Greens seats halved, the party must decide where it can exert the most influence. Rattenbury has indicated the party will wait until all votes are counted before making a decision on its next steps.
Coalition or Crossbench?
This is the question the Greens now face. Chief Minister Barr has acknowledged the Greens’ period of reflection, while also noting that some form of agreement will likely be necessary for stable governance. Both parties appear willing to negotiate, but with fewer seats, the Greens’ leverage may be diminished compared to previous coalitions.
- Emma Davidson and Rebecca Vassarotti lost their seats.
- New independents: Fiona Carrick and Thomas Emerson entered the Assembly.
Counting Continues as Final Seats Hang in the Balance
As of Sunday morning, counting resumed, with one final seat in Brindabella still in doubt. Labor’s Taimus Werner-Gibbings appears to have claimed one of the seats in the electorate, but long-time cabinet member Mick Gentleman may be on the verge of losing his seat. Canberra Liberals candidate James Daniel is also a possibility for the remaining Brindabella seat.
A similar uncertainty remains in Murrumbidgee, where the final seat is projected to go to the Liberals, but whether it will be Amardeep Singh or sitting MLA Ed Cocks is yet to be determined. Both these seats could influence not only the balance of power but also the future of Labor’s governance.
The ACT Electoral Commissioner has stated that all postal votes must be returned by Friday, and a formal declaration of results is expected around Wednesday, October 30. Scrutineers from various parties are overseeing the process, ensuring accuracy and transparency in what could be a defining moment for Canberra politics.
The Rise of Independents: What’s Next for the Crossbench?
With two new independent members—Fiona Carrick and Thomas Emerson—joining the Assembly, there is a strong sense that their influence could be pivotal. Both independents are expected to sit on the crossbench, and Chief Minister Barr has expressed interest in engaging with them to ensure a more stable government.
While Labor has traditionally worked closely with the ACT Greens, Barr has indicated his desire to extend discussions to independents. He hopes to establish agreements on confidence and supply, which could smooth over potential hurdles in forming a coalition or navigating the legislative term. Carrick and Emerson are expected to engage constructively with the government, and their presence on the crossbench may introduce fresh perspectives and ideas to the Assembly.
- Independents: Fiona Carrick and Thomas Emerson
- Role: Likely to sit on the crossbench and participate in confidence and supply negotiations.
A Stable Future for ACT Politics?
As ACT Labor secures another term, the focus now shifts to coalition-building and the role of independents and the ACT Greens. With the final seat counts expected soon, negotiations between the parties will define the political landscape for the next four years. While much is still in flux, Chief Minister Andrew Barr’s leadership remains a constant, having successfully steered the territory through decades of governance.
The final formation of the Assembly will dictate not only how the territory is governed but also how key policies are shaped moving forward. Until the last votes are counted and preferences are distributed, the future political structure remains just out of reach.
