In a historic outcome, ACT Labor has secured its seventh straight term after 23 years in power, with Chief Minister Andrew Barr celebrating the win on Saturday night. However, the victory comes with a twist. The political landscape of the ACT has been significantly altered, with two independents winning seats for the first time in two decades. The final makeup of the government remains uncertain as key seats are still being counted, leaving the governing coalition in limbo.
A New Look for the Legislative Assembly
This election has ushered in a new era for Canberra’s politics. The rise of independents has been a major story, with Fiona Carrick and Thomas Emerson winning seats in Murrumbidgee and Kurrajong, respectively. Their presence on the crossbench introduces a new dynamic to the Assembly.
While Labor celebrated its 10 seats, the Canberra Liberals secured 9, and the ACT Greens saw their representation cut in half to just two seats. This result reflects a clear shift in how Canberrans voted, moving away from the traditional major party blocs. The final composition of the government now hinges on coalition negotiations and the role these new independents will play.
| Party | Seats Won (Projected) |
| ACT Labor | 10 |
| Canberra Liberals | 9 |
| ACT Greens | 2 |
| Independents | 2 |
Greens at a Crossroads After Major Losses
The ACT Greens, long-term coalition partners for Labor, are now facing a period of deep reflection. The party’s numbers were halved from four seats to two, a significant blow that weakens their bargaining position.
Two of their sitting members and cabinet ministers, Emma Davidson and Rebecca Vassarotti, lost their seats to newcomers. Only party leader Shane Rattenbury and Andrew Braddock are projected to return to the Assembly. Rattenbury admitted the party faces a “dilemma” on whether to re-enter a coalition or exert influence from the crossbench. He has stated that the party will not make any decisions until all votes are officially declared.
This dramatic shift has created a new set of challenges and opportunities for the party. Their reduced numbers mean any new agreement with Labor would look very different from previous terms.
Counting Continues as Final Seats Remain Undecided
The final picture of the Assembly is not yet complete, with counting continuing for a few crucial seats. All eyes are on the electorate of Brindabella, where the future of long-serving Labor cabinet minister Mick Gentleman hangs in the balance.
A tight contest is also underway for the last seat in Murrumbidgee. While projected to go to the Liberals, it is still unclear which candidate will be successful.
- In Brindabella, Labor’s Mick Gentleman is at risk of losing his seat to a Canberra Liberals candidate.
- In Murrumbidgee, the final Liberal seat is a close race between Amardeep Singh and sitting MLA Ed Cocks.
The ACT Electoral Commissioner has confirmed that postal votes must be returned by Friday. A formal declaration of the final results is not expected until around Wednesday, October 30, meaning the political uncertainty will continue for several more days.
What is the Path to a Stable Government?
With the final numbers still fluid, Chief Minister Andrew Barr has already signaled his willingness to work with the new crossbench. He has expressed a desire to negotiate with both the Greens and the new independents, Fiona Carrick and Thomas Emerson, to ensure stable governance.
Barr hopes to secure agreements on confidence and supply, which are essential for a minority government to function effectively. The independents are expected to engage constructively, potentially bringing fresh perspectives to policy debates. The next four years in ACT politics will be defined by how Labor, the Greens, and these powerful new independents choose to work together.
