Fantasy football is full of stats. But are they always telling the truth? Sometimes, numbers lie, and they don’t tell the whole story behind a player’s performance. Let’s break down some misleading stats that are worth revisiting, with a closer look at Geno Smith and DK Metcalf.
Geno Smith’s Low Touchdown Count Doesn’t Match His Play
Six touchdowns? That’s all?
Despite leading the league in passing yards and attempts, Geno Smith is tied for 19th in touchdowns with only six so far this season. That number simply doesn’t reflect his performance or potential. Smith ranks third in passes inside the five-yard line and fourth in end-zone targets, but he’s converted just two of those 15 attempts. His 2.4% touchdown rate ranks 32nd out of 34 qualified quarterbacks. How did that happen?
- Leads the league in passing yards
- 3rd in passes inside the five-yard line
- Only six touchdowns
One year ago, Smith led the NFC in touchdown passes, so there’s clear evidence he can deliver. The Seahawks’ wide receivers haven’t been helping his case this season, but things are expected to turn around. Seattle leads the league in pass rate over expectation, especially inside the 10-yard line. With an Atlanta defense that applies the second-lowest pressure in the league on deck, Smith has a prime opportunity to boost his touchdown numbers this weekend.
DK Metcalf’s WR26 Rank Feels Off—And It Is
Fantasy managers looking at DK Metcalf’s WR26 ranking in points per game may feel underwhelmed.
But wait: in terms of expected fantasy points, he’s ranked as WR5. Last week alone, Metcalf nearly scored three touchdowns and led the NFL in air yards. His overall performance might seem mediocre, but he’s actually been on the verge of multiple big plays.
Here’s the situation:
- Top 5 in targets
- Top 10 in air yard share
- Seattle attempts the most passes in the NFL
Metcalf is seeing more targets than ever before, and that’s about to pay off. Seattle ranks number one in PROE and neutral pass rate inside the 10-yard line, so Metcalf’s ranking should climb after this weekend’s game against the Falcons.
Amari Cooper’s WR50 Ranking Is Misleading
Amari Cooper’s low fantasy performance has been frustrating.
Despite ranking seventh in targets and second in air yards this season, Cooper finds himself all the way down at WR50. His quarterback, Deshaun Watson, has had one of the worst YPAs in NFL history through six weeks, and Watson also leads the league in sacks. The good news? Cooper has just been traded to Buffalo, which could dramatically improve his numbers.
- 7th in targets, 2nd in air yards
- Trade to Buffalo means a huge upgrade at QB
- Buffalo’s offense is top 7 in scoring
Cooper may have dropped a few passes this season, but his quarterback play was largely responsible for his ugly stats. Now, with Josh Allen at the helm, Cooper is expected to make an immediate impact in Buffalo, and his fantasy ranking should skyrocket.
Ladd McConkey: The Hidden Rookie Gem
Ladd McConkey might be the NFL’s best-kept secret.
McConkey, ranked as WR45 in fantasy, has quietly emerged as a key rookie receiver for the Los Angeles Chargers. Fresh off a bye week, McConkey posted career highs in targets, average depth of target (aDOT), and air yards last week. He even came close to scoring a touchdown, only to be tackled at the one-yard line.
What makes McConkey stand out?
- 25% target share in four of five games
- Leads the Chargers in routes despite missing pre-season practice
- Top 15 in targets per route run
McConkey’s Chargers face a team with a weak passing defense moving forward, and his fantasy numbers should rise significantly, especially given the team’s increasing pass rate inside the 10-yard line.
