In fantasy football, the box score doesn’t always reveal the truth. Sometimes, a player’s low point total hides elite usage and upcoming opportunities. Key players like Geno Smith and DK Metcalf are underperforming on paper, but a deeper look at their stats shows they are on the verge of a major breakout. Understanding these underlying numbers can give you a huge edge over your league mates.
Geno Smith’s Touchdown Drought is About to End
Many fantasy managers are worried about Geno Smith’s six touchdowns, which places him near the bottom of the league. This number is incredibly misleading when you consider he leads the entire NFL in passing yards and attempts. His performance is much better than the touchdown total suggests.
The main issue has been bad luck in the red zone. Smith is third in the league in passes inside the five-yard line and fourth in end-zone targets. However, he has only converted two of these 15 high-value attempts into touchdowns. His 2.4% touchdown rate is unsustainably low and is due for a major correction.
Remember, this is the same quarterback who led the NFC in touchdown passes just one year ago. The Seattle Seahawks offense is built to throw the ball, as they lead the league in pass rate over expectation. With a matchup against the Atlanta Falcons defense, which generates very little pressure, Smith is in a perfect spot to get back on track this week.
Why DK Metcalf is a Fantasy Football Buy-Low
Seeing DK Metcalf ranked as the WR26 in points per game is a major disappointment for anyone who drafted him. But if you look beneath the surface, you’ll find one of the best trade targets in all of fantasy football right now.
The key is a metric called “expected fantasy points,” which measures a player’s value based on their usage. In that category, Metcalf is ranked as the WR5. This massive difference between his expected points and actual points signals that a breakout is coming. Last week alone, he led the NFL in air yards and was close to scoring three different times.
Metcalf’s usage has been nothing short of elite this season.
- He is in the top 5 among all wide receivers in targets.
- He ranks in the top 10 for air yard share, showing he gets deep looks.
- His team, the Seahawks, attempts the most passes in the NFL.
This heavy volume is about to turn into massive fantasy production. Seattle is aggressive with their passing game inside the 10-yard line, which means Metcalf’s touchdown numbers should start climbing very soon.
Amari Cooper’s New Home Spells Fantasy Gold
Few players have been as frustrating to own as Amari Cooper, who sits at a shocking WR50 despite seeing elite volume. He ranks seventh in targets and second in air yards, numbers that usually belong to a top-tier fantasy receiver.
His poor production was almost entirely due to terrible quarterback play. His former QB, Deshaun Watson, had one of the worst yards per attempt averages in recent history and was constantly under pressure. But that all just changed.
Cooper has been traded to the Buffalo Bills, giving him a massive upgrade at quarterback with Josh Allen. This move completely changes his fantasy outlook for the rest of the season. He goes from one of the worst passing situations to one of the very best.
| Situation | Quarterback | Offense Ranking |
| Before Trade | Deshaun Watson | Bottom 5 in Pass Efficiency |
| After Trade | Josh Allen | Top 7 in Scoring |
With a high-powered offense and an elite quarterback, Cooper is set to see his fantasy ranking skyrocket. He is an immediate impact player in Buffalo.
Don’t Sleep on Rookie Ladd McConkey
While everyone is focused on the big names, Los Angeles Chargers rookie Ladd McConkey is quietly having a fantastic season. Currently ranked as the WR45, he is a hidden gem who is poised for a second-half breakout.
Coming off a bye week, McConkey just set career highs in targets, air yards, and average depth of target. He was even tackled at the one-yard line, showing just how close he is to scoring his first touchdown and having a huge fantasy day. His role in the offense is growing each week.
McConkey’s underlying metrics are extremely impressive for a rookie.
- He has earned a 25% target share in four of his five games.
- He leads the Chargers in routes run despite missing time in the pre-season.
- He ranks in the top 15 for targets per route run, a key efficiency metric.
The Chargers face a series of weak passing defenses in the coming weeks. Given his secure role and the team’s willingness to throw in the red zone, McConkey is a player you want on your fantasy team before his value explodes.
Frequently Asked Questions About Fantasy Football Breakouts
Why are my fantasy players not scoring points despite getting a lot of targets?
This often comes down to bad luck, poor quarterback play, or the type of targets they are receiving. A player with high “air yards” but low fantasy points is a prime candidate for a breakout, as their big plays are coming.
What does ‘pass rate over expectation’ mean for fantasy football?
This is an advanced stat that shows which teams pass the ball more often than expected in certain situations. A high PROE, especially near the end zone, is great news for a team’s quarterback and wide receivers.
Is Geno Smith a good fantasy quarterback to trade for?
Based on his underlying numbers, yes. Smith is playing much better than his touchdown total suggests. He is a prime candidate for “positive regression,” meaning his luck is bound to turn for the better, making him a great buy-low target.
Which player from this list has the highest upside for the rest of the season?
While all are great candidates, Amari Cooper likely has the highest ceiling. Moving from a struggling offense to playing with an elite quarterback like Josh Allen in a top-scoring offense gives him the potential to be a top-10 fantasy receiver from here on out.
