The bright lights of the National Bank Open have welcomed a new week of top-tier tennis, and Tuesday’s Round of 64 clash between Karen Khachanov and Juan Pablo Ficovich comes with more than just a few odds stacked against the latter. With Khachanov ranked 16th and Ficovich sitting at 140th in the ATP rankings, the numbers already suggest a steep hill to climb for the Argentine. Still, the ball hasn’t been served yet, and anything can happen under pressure on a hard court.
Khachanov enters the match as a massive favorite, with sportsbooks placing his odds at -1099 compared to Ficovich’s +625. While the gap is wide, tennis has seen stranger outcomes. Tuesday’s match is set to stream on the Tennis Channel and Fubo, live from the Canadian hard courts, where momentum—and perhaps nerves—will be just as crucial as raw skill.
The Odds Say It All, But…
No one’s pretending this is an even match.
Karen Khachanov holds a heavy 91.7% implied probability of winning, according to the latest moneyline figures. That leaves Ficovich just under 9%, which in betting circles, is little more than a statistical long shot.
Khachanov has the numbers to back it. He’s 21-16 on hard courts over the last 12 months and even took home a title. Meanwhile, Ficovich has only played seven hard-court matches in the past year, winning five—not bad, but nowhere near the volume or quality Khachanov’s faced.
Still, sport is full of blind spots. It’s worth noting that odds aren’t guarantees. Just ask any bettor who’s had their ticket shredded by a last-minute meltdown.
Khachanov’s Hard Court Game Is Built for Power
Hard courts have long favored Khachanov’s brand of tennis.
In the last year alone, he’s won 80.2% of his service games on this surface. That stat speaks volumes about his control from the baseline and confidence with first serves. He’s also made good use of break opportunities, converting 38.4% of his chances across 263 break points.
And let’s not forget Wimbledon earlier this month, where he pushed all the way to the quarterfinals before running into the brick wall that is Taylor Fritz. That match ended 3-6, 4-6, 6-1, 6-7 on July 8, but Khachanov walked away with his head high and his form relatively intact.
The Russian’s serve-and-volley rhythm, mixed with his aggressive return game, has made him a dangerous player on hard surfaces. But consistency is key, and pressure does funny things even to the best of them.
Ficovich Has Grit, If Not Experience
Juan Pablo Ficovich might not have the resume, but he’s not a tourist.
He’s gone 5-2 on hard courts in the past year and, more impressively, he’s managed to win 77% of his service games. Sure, his break point conversion sits at 38.2%—almost identical to Khachanov’s—but it’s based on a much smaller sample: just 55 break point chances.
What Ficovich lacks in tour-level exposure, he somewhat makes up for with raw energy and hustle. His recent run to the quarterfinals at the Mifel Open showed flashes of potential. He lost there in straight sets to Aleksandar Kovacevic (3-6, 1-6), but his path to that round included clean victories that prove he can fight on hard courts.
He’s not here to just shake hands and smile.
Key Stats That Could Shape the Match
A quick look at the stats gives us some direction for what to watch:
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Khachanov’s Service Hold Rate: 80.2% (advantage: reliability under pressure)
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Ficovich’s Return Game Winning Percentage: 31.1% (can he disrupt Khachanov’s rhythm?)
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Break Point Conversion: Both near 38%—but Khachanov has over 200 more opportunities
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Surface Experience (Hard Court Matches in Last 12 Months): Khachanov – 37 matches, Ficovich – 7 matches
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Previous Tournament Form: Khachanov – Wimbledon quarterfinalist, Ficovich – Mifel Open quarterfinalist
It all points to a high-control game for Khachanov, with Ficovich needing to pounce on rare mistakes if he wants to stay afloat.
Broadcast, Schedule, and Why It’s Worth Watching Anyway
The National Bank Open, presented by Rogers, is Canada’s premier ATP event and a crucial stop in the lead-up to the U.S. Open.
Tennis Channel will carry Tuesday’s broadcast, and fans can also stream the match via Fubo. For hardcore fans, these early-round matches are more than formalities. They’re the tension-filled proving grounds that reveal who’s sharp and who’s just hoping to survive.
Khachanov might breeze through—or he might stumble just enough to keep it interesting. Ficovich might fold early—or, who knows, string together enough rallies to force a surprise third set.
Regardless of outcome, the match is a glimpse at tennis in its purest form: one favorite trying to dominate, one underdog fighting for every point.
