For the first time since the pandemic began, influenza is causing more deaths in California than COVID-19. State health data shows flu-related fatalities have surpassed those attributed to the coronavirus this winter, marking a significant shift in the landscape of respiratory illnesses.
A Sudden Change in the Numbers
California’s Department of Public Health has reported that since late December, flu-related deaths have accounted for a larger share of overall fatalities than COVID-19. Currently, flu is responsible for about 2% of all deaths statewide—a rate higher than in the last two winters.
This shift has surprised many. COVID-19 had remained the dominant respiratory virus in terms of mortality for nearly four years. But as vaccination rates for flu decline, the virus appears to be regaining its pre-pandemic deadly potential.
“This may become the worst influenza season we’ve had so far in the 21st century,” warned Dr. John Swartzberg, an infectious disease expert at UC Berkeley.
A Worrying Drop in Vaccinations
One of the key factors driving the surge in flu deaths is lower vaccination rates. Fewer people—especially children—are getting flu shots compared to before the pandemic.
CDC data reveals that flu vaccine uptake among children aged six months to 17 years has dropped to 45%, a sharp decline from 58% in early 2020. Experts fear that this could leave a significant portion of the population vulnerable to severe illness.
Here’s a look at how vaccination rates have changed:
| Age Group | 2020 Flu Vaccine Uptake | 2024 Flu Vaccine Uptake |
|---|---|---|
| 6 months – 17 years | 58% | 45% |
| 18 – 49 years | 39% | 35% |
| 50 – 64 years | 55% | 50% |
| 65+ years | 70% | 65% |
Dr. Swartzberg notes that while flu vaccines don’t provide complete immunity, they significantly reduce the severity of illness.
Flu Deaths Climbing, Hitting Seniors and Children Hard
Since July 1, California has recorded at least 561 flu-related deaths, with the majority occurring in those over 65. The elderly remain the most vulnerable, but children are also at increased risk. So far, at least 10 pediatric flu deaths have been reported this season, compared to three pediatric COVID-19 deaths in the same period.
Experts say the mix of flu strains circulating this year—including H1N1 and H3N2—is contributing to severe infections. Influenza B, which typically emerges later in the season, could drive even more hospitalizations.
And while avian influenza (bird flu) has made headlines, there’s no evidence linking it to this year’s human flu spike.
How to Protect Yourself
Health officials are urging people to take the same precautions they followed to avoid COVID-19:
- Get vaccinated as soon as possible.
- Wash hands frequently with soap and water or use alcohol-based sanitizers.
- Avoid touching your face, especially the eyes, nose, and mouth.
- Ensure indoor spaces are well-ventilated or use air purifiers.
- Stay away from people who are sick.
For those already experiencing flu symptoms, doctors recommend rest, hydration, and antiviral medications like Tamiflu when necessary. Over-the-counter pain relievers can help with fever and body aches.
What Comes Next?
Public health officials are closely monitoring flu activity, with some warning that this season may not peak until late February or even March. If flu deaths continue to outpace COVID-19 fatalities, it could reshape how health policies are prioritized moving forward.
For now, experts stress that the best defense is simple: get vaccinated.
