Bitcoin’s price held steady at around $90,750 on Friday, showing little movement as trading volumes dropped over the Thanksgiving weekend. This flat performance comes despite strong tailwinds from President-elect Donald Trump’s policy hints and growing bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Investors now wonder if these factors can push the crypto king higher or if a pullback looms.
Trump Policies Fuel Bitcoin Optimism
President-elect Donald Trump recently sparked excitement in financial markets with bold ideas on taxes and tariffs. In an interview, he suggested the US could slash or even eliminate income taxes as soon as 2026, replacing that revenue with tariffs on imports.
This plan aims to offset the massive $2.5 trillion the government collects yearly from income taxes. Analysts estimate Trump’s tariffs might bring in about $300 billion annually, a fraction of what’s needed. Still, Trump claims Americans could see the largest tax refunds in years.
Trump’s tariff push could cut US debt by over $4 trillion in a decade, according to reports he often cites. But ending income taxes remains a tough sell. It could widen the federal deficit, especially with US debt now at $38.3 trillion. Critics in Congress, including some Republicans, resist related ideas like a $2,000 stimulus check.
Bitcoin bulls see opportunity here. Lower taxes might boost disposable income, driving more investment into risk assets like crypto. Trump’s pro-business stance has already lifted market sentiment since his election win.
Trump’s team has also floated creating a US Bitcoin strategic reserve, similar to oil reserves. This idea gained traction after his confirmation in late 2024, pushing Bitcoin to record highs earlier this year.
Fed Rate Cuts Add Momentum to Crypto Rally
The Federal Reserve’s moves are another big driver for Bitcoin’s price trends. Expectations for interest rate cuts in December 2025 and into 2026 have grown after weak US economic data.
A recent ADP report showed the economy lost jobs last week, signaling slowdowns in the labor market. This softness makes rate cuts more likely, as the Fed aims to support growth.
Bitcoin often thrives when the Fed cuts rates and eases money policy. Lower rates make borrowing cheaper, encouraging investment in high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. US Treasuries and the Secured Overnight Financing Rate have already fallen in recent weeks, reflecting these bets.
Crypto.com’s market update from September 2025 predicted that Fed cuts could shape crypto and stock markets positively. Bankrate’s analysis echoes this, noting how rate drops boost stocks, crypto, and commodities.
Traders now price in an 85% chance of a cut at the next Fed meeting, per recent data. If it happens, Bitcoin could see fresh inflows, especially from exchange-traded funds that have poured in over $200 million recently.
Here are key factors influencing Fed decisions:
- Inflation data showing moderation, with core PCE at 2.6% year-over-year.
- Weak job numbers, including ADP’s report of job losses.
- Broader economic strains, like rising debt and global trade tensions.
Bitcoin’s Technical Outlook Points to Volatility
On the charts, Bitcoin’s price action tells a story of recovery mixed with caution. It bottomed at $80,495 on November 21, 2025, then climbed to nearly $92,000 by mid-week.
This rebound crossed key resistance levels, showing buyer strength. Yet, the coin sits below all major moving averages and the Supertrend indicator, hinting at possible weakness.
A double-bottom pattern could form if Bitcoin retests $80,495 and bounces back, signaling a stronger uptrend. For now, it’s stuck in a range, with low volumes over Thanksgiving adding to the chop.
Traders eye $91,000 to $93,000 as next resistance. A break above could target $100,000, fueled by Trump and Fed tailwinds. But a drop below $80,000 might trigger more selling.
Recent swings have been wild. Fortune Crypto reported a 1.8% market cap drop in late October 2025 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at pausing cuts. Economic Times noted Bitcoin falling to $108,000 then, but it has since adjusted amid policy shifts.
| Date | Bitcoin Price | Key Event |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 2025 | $80,495 | Market bottom amid weak jobs data |
| Nov 27, 2025 | $91,000 | Thanksgiving rebound on rate cut hopes |
| Oct 30, 2025 | $108,572 | Drop after Trump-Xi meeting and Fed caution |
This table highlights how external events drive price moves.
Market Sentiment and Broader Impacts
Investor mood around Bitcoin remains upbeat but cautious. Posts on X during Thanksgiving weekend showed mixed views, with some calling the bounce “panic-fueled” while others bet on a Santa rally.
Institutional players are key. Bitget News reported growing drives from big firms, despite a 30% crash earlier in 2025 that erased $1 trillion in value. That dip tied to Fed policy shifts and heavy margin trading.
For everyday investors, these trends matter. Lower rates could ease loan costs, freeing up cash for crypto buys. Trump’s tax ideas might mean more take-home pay, but they risk higher prices on imported goods.
Bitcoin’s path affects altcoins too. Ethereum dipped 3.6% recently, per reports, but could rally if Bitcoin leads.
As 2025 winds down, Bitcoin’s price hovers in uncertainty, buoyed by Trump’s ambitious tax and tariff plans and the Fed’s potential rate cuts. These forces could spark a year-end surge, offering hope to investors hit by earlier crashes. Yet, economic headwinds like job losses and rising debt remind us of the risks. What do you think—will Bitcoin break $100,000 soon, or is a deeper pullback coming? Share your thoughts and pass this article to your friends on social media.
